Houston vs. Duke odds, score prediction: 2024 NCAA Tournament picks, Sweet 16 best bets from proven model

The fourth-seeded Duke Blue Devils will look to advance to their 24th Elite Eight and second in three years when they meet the No. 1 seeded Houston Cougars in a 2024 NCAA Tournament South Region matchup at Dallas. The Blue Devils (26-8), who have won 10 of their past 13 games, are taking part in their 46th NCAA Tournament, and third in a row. The Cougars (32-4), who won the Big 12 Conference regular-season title in their first season in the league, are making their sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. Duke is looking for its sixth NCAA championship and first since 2015, while Houston is looking for its first national title.

Tipoff from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:39 p.m. ET. Houston has the third-best point differential in the nation at plus-16.4, while Duke is 11th at plus-13.2. The Cougars are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. Houston odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Houston vs. Duke picks, you need to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 152-109 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It also has a strong 32-21 (+890) record on top-rated spread picks this season, and it called 13 Sweet 16 teams this year. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Duke and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and betting lines and trends for Duke vs. Houston:

  • Houston vs. Duke spread: Houston -4.5
  • Houston vs. Duke over/under: 134.5 points
  • Houston vs. Duke money line: Duke +165, Houston -203
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games
  • HOU: The Cougars are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
  • Houston vs. Duke picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Houston can cover

Sophomore Emanuel Sharp is coming off a 30-point and three-rebound effort in Sunday’s NCAA Tournament second-round win over Texas A&M. It is the fourth time in five games where he has reached 13 or more points. In an 82-59 win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, he scored 17 points, while grabbing four rebounds and dishing out two assists. In 36 games, including 31 starts, he is averaging 12.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 28.1 minutes.

Also coming up big against the Aggies on Sunday was senior forward J’Wan Roberts. He just missed registering a double-double, scoring 13 points, while grabbing eight rebounds and adding two assists and two steals. He recorded four double-doubles on the season, including an 11-point and 13-rebound effort in a 78-65 loss at Kansas on Feb. 3. He scored 20 points and grabbed 13 rebounds, while adding five assists and four blocks in a 68-67 loss at TCU on Jan. 13. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Duke can cover

Freshman guard Jared McCain is one of five Blue Devils averaging 10 or more points. He has scored 15 or more points in four of the past five games, including a 30-point effort in Sunday’s Round of 32 win over James Madison. He had 15 points, six rebounds and three assists in a 64-47 win over Vermont in the first round last Friday. In 34 games, all starts, he is averaging 14 points, five rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals in 31.1 minutes.

Sophomore forward Mark Mitchell has been productive on the boards. In the first-round win over Vermont, he scored 15 points, while grabbing five rebounds. He had 18 points and eight boards in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal loss to North Carolina State. In 31 games, including 30 starts, Mitchell is averaging 12.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 28.9 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Duke vs. Houston picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 141 points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can see the picks only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Houston vs. Duke, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 152-109 roll on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.

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