Bills vs. Chiefs odds, line, time: 2024 NFL divisional round picks, playoff predictions by advanced model

For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will go on the road in the postseason when they take on the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Chiefs (12-6), who have won three in a row, have won their last six divisional round games since 2018. The Bills (12-6), who have won six in a row, are in the divisional round for the fourth consecutive year. This will be the third playoff meeting between the teams in the past four years. Kansas City won the two previous matchups at home.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds via the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 46. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Chiefs and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model’s picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Buffalo -2.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over/under: 46 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo -146, Kansas City +122
  • KC: Chiefs were 10-7 against the spread this season
  • BUF: Bills are 8-10 ATS this season
  • Bills vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine 
  • Bills vs. Chiefs live stream: Paramount+ (try free for one week)

Why the Bills can cover

Veteran quarterback Josh Allen is coming off a solid performance in the 31-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. In that game, Allen completed 21 of 30 passes (70%) for 203 yards and three touchdowns. He also carried eight times for 74 yards, including a 52-yard score. During the regular season, Allen was among the league’s best, throwing for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns. He also ran for 15 scores.

Running back James Cook powers the running game for Buffalo. In the win over the Steelers, he carried 18 times for 79 yards (4.4 average). His best game was in a 31-10 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Dec. 17. In that game, he carried 25 times for 179 yards (7.2 average) and one touchdown. He also caught two passes for 42 yards and a score. For the season, he carried 237 times for 1,122 yards (4.7 average) and two TDs. He also had six explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 42 yards. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Despite that, the Bills are not a lock to cover the Chiefs vs. Bills spread. That’s because Kansas City is led by last year’s MVP quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, who was also the Super Bowl MVP. In last Saturday’s 26-7 Wild Card win over the Miami Dolphins, Mahomes completed 23 of 41 passes (56.1%) for 262 yards and one touchdown. He also carried twice for 41 yards. During the regular season, Mahomes completed 67.2% of his passes for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns vs. 14 interceptions.

The ground attack is led by Isiah Pacheco, who carried 24 times for 89 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Dolphins last Saturday. Pacheco, who was limited to 14 regular-season games, carried 205 yards for 935 yards (4.6 average) and seven touchdowns. He had six explosive plays, including a long of 48 yards. He also had three 100-yard rushing games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, predicting 47 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in the NFL playoffs 2024, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 183-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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