COVID-19 Forecasting and Mathematical Modeling

Why COVID-19 Forecasting and Mathematical Modeling Are Important

Forecasts of disease burden help inform public health decision making by projecting the likely impact of COVID-19 in the next few weeks.  These forecasts are generated using mathematical models by CDC partners in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub

Bringing Together Forecasts for COVID-19 in the United States

CDC works with partners to bring together weekly forecasts based on statistical or mathematical models that aim to predict national and state numbers of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next 4 weeks.

Previously, forecasts also predicted the number of new COVID-19 deaths and cases per week. Death forecasts stopped in March 2023 and case forecasts stopped in February 2022. A machine readable database of past forecasts is available at data.cdc.gov.

Ensemble forecasts

Forecasting teams in the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub

An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks.  This article, Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

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